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One pick One throne Hello everyone and welcome to king of the hill survival pool show I'm your host Sean Stewart and it is week 11 in the NFL week 12 in college football So we have a great and wonderful guest. So apparently the X feed is not working But great news is I is Arizona YouTube and is on LinkedIn my LinkedIn profile So I have a guest his name is Brett Ritchie all the way from Las Vegas, Nevada so Yeah, apologize for that a little small delay But again, that's X for you because I'm trying because it's a new profile and by the way You can follow the show on X at King O the hills and on Instagram at king of the hill survivor. So this so those Pages have been up since last week and not to mention Not to mention we are also available on not only on the 5a6 sports website But we're also on Spotify iHeartRadio and Apple podcast as well. 

Alright, so You're gonna very enjoy it. So not only we have the survival pool for week 11 in NFL, but I also have the Touchdown Street survivor contest on splash sports and then of course week 12 of college football survival pool for those that are still in their survivor pool Contest on splash sports. So if you are a new customer of splash sports You can use my code UUM to IX and get a free $10 when you enter a contest That is $10 or plus so if you even do that or a combination of entries So for example, if a contest was $5 entries, let's look like let's say the contest is $5 right and then you put in 3 so 5 times 3 that's 15 you get that free $10 because it was a $10 plus contest. 

So if you give your friend your Your referral link after they get After they put in a contest that's $10 or more. You and your friend will get $10 each for free Yeah, I had a get a little drink. All right so without further ado, let me Bring him in by the way, so he has been waiting patiently Ladies and gentlemen, please. 

Welcome. Mr. Brett Ritchie. How are you doing my friend? You're absolutely you're absolutely welcome. 

So I just so before I got into the air I just entered some new contest for week 11 because last week I actually picked Carolina over the Saints, of course the Saints lost that game So it was it was a bummer, but hey, we still got time for survival So for those that have not played before so you still got enough plenty of time to even play Yeah, I mean that you couldn't they're running them Non-stop and there's there's more products coming out which you're gonna be like in-game survivor and it's like a format that's booming It's it's I've gambled on the NFL in every possible way You know just straight betting fantasy daily fantasy best ball parlays money line, whatever Survivor to me is the most fun by far Great and It brings it back to the raw just which team is gonna win, you know, it's not oh this guy didn't get enough yards You know just you got to pick a team to win of each one team a week That shouldn't be that exactly and it's very easy. It is no straight. It ain't no odds or nothing All you just have to do just pick a team I think it's gonna win and if that team wins you advance to the next round. 

All you just got to do is just strategize Yeah But yeah, it is growing Okay, so We got tonight's game. That is the New York Jets and the New England Patriots now before I got into the air there is a lot of people that is picking the New England Patriots in their survivor pool because When there's a lot of teams pick when there's a lot of people picking that team More likely you're gonna find somewhere else because worst case scenario is you could be part of that elimination as well so According to pool genius the Patriots project to be comfortable favorites in five of their Remaining seven games and they have them at least 86% this week, which is 7% higher than any other team So if you've got multi injuries my multi entry, that's one thing But if it's just one you might want to else look somewhere. I Patriots and I have Patriots available in both. 

I'm using one on the Patriots I'm saving the other because as you mentioned they have at Bengals. They have at Jets again They have first Miami. They have first New York Giants So there's several good spots that the Patriots will be Usable in and they're gonna be bottlenecked off because they're only 50% available coming into this I expect them to be 35% ish, but maybe 40 It'll be at least 30 and so you're now sub 20% Availability for New England in any pool you're in they're gonna be pretty rare because they've had they've been popular all year This is this is a good spot to use them as you mentioned like I don't love being on the big chalk I avoided Carolina last week sort of for that reason, but when a team gets north of minus 10 I I don't mind it as much because it's just so infrequent that they lose those games North of they still do look at Green Bay two weeks ago They were minus 13 and they lost to the same Carolina team that then came back and lost to the Saints Which kind of just sums up the NFL right there. 

It's really a week-to-week league There's there's you could never know like so even Patriots are 86% right? I believe that to be true So 14% of that, I don't think there's locks or anything like that It's 86% Patriots win this game that makes them a good play However, you would love to get through this week and still have them in your back pocket because they have four other spots Right, I'm gonna use them for when no one else can I? Absolutely agree with that as well. By the way, those that in here pages are fair by 13 now Here's another one we have the Remain Packers on the road to face the New York football Giants because they did lose to the Carolina Panthers and the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night So the Giants fired their head coach brand the ball which was expected but in but it was a matter of when they was gonna Do it but the good news is the Packers are fourth in the NFL in EPA drop back as Jordan love should have more success against the Giants that's ranked 22nd in defensive EPA drop back so in the quarterback for the Giants right now is James Winston because last week Russell Wilson did play when Jackson dark got injured so Packers should not have no problem beating the Giants You'd think so But Green Bay has been a very Jekyll and Hyde team all year And I say this as of now, I plan to put my second circuit entry on Green Bay. So But that's kind of just based on the market odds right now that could change if the line moves But I'm actually in this contest only because I've picked against the Giants three times each time it took me a Complete miracle. 

I had Cowboys in week two where they needed a 64-yard field goal out of Brandon Aubrey To tie the game. I remember it was it was and then they might have won an overtime I don't even remember then Cobb was won in overtime Cowboys won an overtime So you need a 64-yard field goal to send it to overtime and then they still had to win in overtime Then I had the Broncos against the Giants in the the biggest meltdown in history essentially when they do They were 99.9% to win the Giants in game I somehow I would be out of the contest both my entries had Broncos and then both of my remaining entries had bears this past week and the only reason the Bears won is they they dart got injured and fumbled on the same play and The Giants were up ten or no there may have been up seven but they were driving and then he got hurt and then he fumbled on the exact same play and Then Russell Wilson wasn't any good In terms of this week again, I'm like, I'm kind of a market odds guy So the the Giants are plus seven Packers minus seven. I like them. 

I like seven and north of seven I feel a little more comfortable there. Although as we saw with Buffalo last week, there's no it's not a guarantee But I do feel a little more comfortable when I can be no, I mean sevens is such a big number, right? It's a touchdown. So it's like you're over a touchdown favorite or even at one. 

I feel a little more comfortable But I would rather Russell Wilson because I feel he's just a Jameis is a very volatile player And so when you're looking at kind of a moneyline bet like spread I don't I wouldn't mind Jameis as much right if I'm betting spread on this game, but Jameis, I think has upside that Russ doesn't where Jameis he could throw four or five touchdowns we've seen that and we've also seen him throw four or five picks and so You know, I'm not like bullet. He's third string for a reason probably but we've seen Jameis Like he could spark an offense me and the team loves them. You see any locker room interview or whatever It's like these guys love love Jameis Exactly because that's only the scary thing is like if the gate the only fear I thought I have this if the game is very Close if the game is very close, then I think that if you pick the Packers I think you should be very scared if that game is close Yeah And then and also the Packers team is supposed to be this great D Then they get Micah Parsons and then like they go Dallas put up 40 on them You know like they are they're losing they lost to the Browns. 

They lost to the Panthers I mean, it's it's and then they go and beat Detroit So it's like it's a very up-and-down team and they've been down more recently I mean they put up seven on Monday night and I don't feel he hasn't even been that good this year to be honest like so It doesn't feel great but Where the way I play is is mostly based on the line and still I'm looking to the future to see Who I want to use and when like you can't just take the biggest favorite every week or you're gonna run out of teams quickly But I am considering Packers on one entry pretty strongly this week Now there is one team I'm very confident in this week and that is the Houston Texans when they face against the Tennessee Titans Now the Texans do we have a top five defense in yards per allowed and allowed points on a league low of like twenty five 0.3% of opponent drive They have 15 takeaways and have 10 interceptions against nine passing touchdowns So even if CJ Stroud is not playing I would pick this probably like my confidence pick of the week for survivor Houston Texans beating the Tennessee Titans because they did because Houston did beat Tennessee at Houston so this game is at Tennessee. So Houston should sweep them. I Have a different view of this game. 

I don't like it for survivor For a couple reasons primarily popularity. I think that Houston looks to be 25% or so plus like like Carolina last week I avoided for the same reason when too many people get on a team that sort of kills the upside in a team the way I play like I want to I want to navigate through the pool and Eliminate a bunch of people so I'm not just trying to make it to the end I think if you're just trying to make it to the end and you don't care who you split with It's something like because I'm in circa is the main contest I'm focused on where there's 18,000 people that started it So you're probably gonna have multiple people at the end every year. They've run it. 

It's been a multi-way split So my paths that I'm trying to build are leading to like fewer people splitting at the end But this I mean it checks a lot of boxes that people don't like right? It's a divisional a matchup that Houston won the first game, right? People say you don't win the same you usually don't beat the same team twice. It's on the road Tennessee's coming off a bye. They're a very young team rookies. 

Typically get the biggest boost out of buys The only box that's really not checking is it's not the Thursday night game And so I think that it looks like Davis Mills is gonna be playing but the Houston D might be the best D in the league and I'm not sure what a buy is gonna do for Cam Warden this offense for what we've seen They haven't really been able to move the ball Can they move the ball on the best D in the league? I mean, I like Houston's minus six right now last I saw so I to be I think they're they're a good play if you Want to just make the end? But if you are worried about the popularity like that's where the herd is gonna be outside Because that could play a part in that it's just you're not gonna lever up on the field that much You're just trying to make it through this week along with everybody else But maybe New England loses to like you could if New England loses this week. All bets are off I think Houston's a good play I think everybody's a good play if New England loses tonight, but you know if New England wins tonight 30 35 percent of the fields already through so picking Houston. You're really just saying like a base I hope we all just make it to the next week and then we'll start to try and knock some people out Now if you're not going to use Houston if you're not gonna pick Houston over Tennessee this week I'm looking at it. 

You can actually look at week 16 when they face against Las Vegas Raiders Yes, and week 16 is a very difficult week. So I actually already used Houston on both my entries So it's sort of moot for me, but I prefer week 16 if you have somebody I'm not saying you should go down to Atlanta or somebody, you know That's like a three and a half if you have somebody you're comfortable using that that is in the in the Houston ballpark Houston has a really good spot that that week 16 is a very difficult week I think the biggest favorite now projected is Casey at Tennessee, but Casey looks really good on a lot of weeks. So you have Buffalo at Cleveland like And again, Buffalo is already pretty rare they have some other spots and And it gets thin it gets thin quickly like week 16 to me is the toughest week left if you look at the map I'm just like available teams and so Houston home against Raiders is like to me. 

That's a better If you have somebody you're comfortable using here, I'd rather save them for then but You know, I can't I can't really argue I mean I think Houston will win 70% of the time or whatever the line says Right because I always do look at the line and I also look at the popularity and I also want to say this When it gets to like week 9 in advance you want to start paying a lot more attention like how many people are picking this popularity team because There's a difference of like in the earlier weeks because I always avoid the elite teams but I but when it's like week 9 and beyond that's where you have to like really pay attention to like the popularity of that particular team Yeah, I mean it and it's like the like in week 9 in circa Rams were 65% which is ridiculous to me and and so I said then I was like This is the worst pick of the year and they were minus 14 home against Saints Like it's not like I thought they were gonna lose but right the thing is you're just not getting any value there Now the Rams are 12% available. I have Rams on both my entries. I have they're a good team, right? They're tied with Seattle for basically the best team in the West right now So I have a great team that only 12% of people can use That has their favorite or tied and basically every game going forward so like things can pop up with injuries or whatever and so Yes, you can take the free square that with minus 14 But it's hurting your entry like I got through with Chargers at Tennessee minus seven. 

They don't have nearly the same value Right and they're 70% available so I really like this availability number in a contest because that's how later in the year you can get on an island and Really just flip the whole pool like you can With Rams are only 12% owned like I there's a possibility late in the year I'm the only guy with Rams like I might be able to ship the whole pool if Rams and five, but you know I had a 16 parlay unlikely, but when you're dealing with survivor, it's like They're very it's a very top-heavy contest right you these outlier outcomes are kind of okay to gamble on like Yeah, you know like last week when Denver got through on Thursday night I was Gary people but people took like Indianapolis Baltimore and they were they were like burning these good teams that didn't have great odds Rams also and to me that's a mistake once Denver's through because if I want to take it and He was only 2% available. They were minus six. There's three other teams north of seven plus Denver So if I want to take a 2% team I want at least the chance that the top four teams lose, right? And now I'm just I flip the whole pool when 30% of the people are already through you don't get that upside You're just trying to make it through with them. 

So that's kind of how I approach it. I Absolutely agree with that. Now. 

Here's one. I'm not confidence is that is the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals because last time they face each other Cincinnati one day game because I thought that Pittsburgh was gonna sweep that sweep the whole division That's not gonna happen. And as I'm looking at the Steelers offense and defense, I know the game is at Pittsburgh but I just feel like Look I'm not I'm not gonna be surprised if Cincinnati beats them and plus the way Joe Joe Burroughs playing because this Has he been playing since? 2008 he's been playing since 2008. 

So I'm here. This is a game I'm very not I'm not confidence, but if I had to choose I would say Pittsburgh win that game So I will stay away from this game and I don't know what type of value will Pittsburgh will have as the weeks go by That's the scary part about Pittsburgh They they don't have much value. So I'm a Steelers fan I grew up in Pittsburgh and I thought I follow the team closely just as a fan and then I do all the fantasy and survivor stuff and I agree with you So first off this year It's been a very Jekyll and Hyde team also the offense has been good for the most part until recently it was the defense Letting us down which is the highest paid D in the league And it was supposed like that was not the gamble was supposed to be Rogers who looked good And then the D kind of got it together, but now the wheels are off the bus on offense and Another thing that the Steelers just as a fan over the years is they tend to Like blow these winnable games at home like home against Raiders It's like it's playing down to the opposition and then we know Baltimore and give them a game no matter who we have and so It doesn't feel great I've already burned my Pittsburgh So I'm not looking at them But I think at minus six or minus five and a half like whatever it is I don't mind them certainly as a pivot off of Houston Like those lines are close enough to where I think Pittsburgh's fine Houston has better future value Houston has that home against Raiders spot on a very tricky week Pittsburgh week 15 they have home against Miami which may you know the line I don't think will be nearly as big as Houston vs. 

Raiders in week 15 has a lot more options There's a ton of choices there. And so And then other than that, I think Pittsburgh has like an at Cleveland which In week 17, which like maybe Shadur is in and Cleveland's out of it and Pittsburgh's fighting but either way they're on the road in Cleveland Cleveland's D is really good Pittsburgh's offense has been struggling. I don't think that line can get too high. 

So If you have Pittsburgh It's to me This is as fine a week as any to use them if you see a reason to hold any team that has better odds Now here's one now if you don't so if you want to be very different I thought I saw one it was the Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because let's be honest the Buccaneers is banged up and Buffalo, I don't know what's happened to Buffalo because I thought Buffalo was going to win the AFC East But apparently New England's in the lead So when I look at this one is like I would pick Buffalo in this one But the concern thing I have with Buffalo is they lose the teams that they should not like for example Like this year when they was playing Atlanta on Monday night Technically Atlanta mean Atlanta should lose that game, but Buffalo Find ways to blow games. That's why that will be my concern if you're picking the Buffalo Bills against Tampa Bay Yeah, I mean it's I lost one with Bills last week and But thankfully Carolina lost which ended up it was still a good week for me losing one out of three, but I Mean the Bills are another Jekyll and Hyde team, right? We're so it's like that Miami game. It wasn't close, right? Like they were never really in the game anytime. 

They were close to making it close. They fumbled it away. So Um, you know, I can see them being motivated or whatever after this week I still I'm like, okay Here's the line and like they're minus six So it's fine. 

I think it's it's fine to use Buffalo The thing is they have better spots in the future and they're already rare. So it's like right All right Cuz I'm like you was talking to me. I'll happen You got disconnected from what I could tell but yeah Yeah out of nowhere Cuz we just got new ear in a couple of weeks ago now there's another team that I'm very iffy with and that is the Atlanta Falcons cuz I'll give the example cuz I remember when the Atlanta Falcons was supposed to play the Miami Dolphins because Kirk Cousins was the QB at the time and last five games. 

He was like one in four and They're playing against the Carolina Panthers So that's one thing about Atlanta is like on paper you think like when they play a certain team You think they'll win but then when they start playing you be like how they even lose that That's when I feel like when if you looking at Carolina and Atlanta game another NFC self-appointed I mean, I lost eight entries on Atlanta week three against Carolina So, I'm very familiar this Atlanta team it's they beat the bills all these teams are just all over the place it's like they're the consistent the Chiefs are five and four, you know, it's like it's been a very interesting year where They're very like Seattle is probably one of the most consistent teams to be honest Seattle and Rams like Teams you wouldn't have thought of as in the top coming in to the year Atlanta I mean, it was funny They were bigger favorites at Carolina earlier in the year by a lot by like three points than they are now home against Carolina in back then I remember thinking I'm getting you know I'm getting them at minus five and a half or minus six and a half. I forget which Thinking well, I'm just trying to be clever getting it through ahead of the minus ten this week And now they're minus three and a half because Carolina has been surprising people It'll Atlanta though. They like they put in the what they lose by one point in Germany. 

That was a close They almost won that game. So Sometimes Atlanta is horrible and then other times there they played New England close to up in New England So they're off to close losses and where they played two top teams close so like I Kind of like Atlanta here just from a ball knowledge standpoint, you know where? But I'm the line is the line guy and they're only minus three and a half So the markets not really buying into this Atlanta revival, you know, you lose close games. They don't really care and Then last but not least is the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns now the Ravens have won three games in a row now For the past four games. 

They held the defense held their opponents to less than 20 points. I offensive touchdowns in that span and Right now There's a couple of games you can actually use Baltimore But if you got Baltimore right now, unless there's something a better team I would say Baltimore for a future pick like probably like Later in like but end of the season just like I did when they was playing against Cleveland last year Yeah, I mean Baltimore they've got a really nice stretch coming up And so this is a fine spot to use Baltimore because nobody's gonna do it or you know, not many people but they're home against Jets next week, which is like Christmas Day for a survivor. Yeah, that's a great way to say it And then they're home against Bengals the week after where Burroughs supposed to still be out But maybe he's back and over in circa that's on the Thanksgiving slate where there's only four games So they're appealing to me in both of those then they get Pittsburgh twice they get I They're home against New England, which isn't great but that's on that week 16, I believe which is a very tricky week and so They're good. 

They have they're gonna be bigger favorites. It's just I don't mind using Baltimore here I would just for sure look at your next two weeks to make sure you have somebody you're comfortable using instead of Baltimore and Then if you feel like it's a little clever to get them through here Like I think it's a good play if you have the backup To do it you realize they're minus 14 and a half right now next week, right? It's a look ahead line against Jets, which is basically a free win And so if you have something else you're comfortable doing to try and get tricky this week. I Don't mind using Baltimore, but I'm kind of with you like I they're in my save bucket save it If I can if I need to use it, like it's pool in case of emergency kind of status. 

Yeah right now. I Absolutely agree now what my list is find you a social media and I did watch your show on X at the work Beautiful. Yeah, that's where I am. 

Mostly just doing some survivor streams over on X Brett Ritchie the Just get rid of that space later yeah, and Hit me up. I love a survivor All right. Thank you very much and look forward to have you on the future show It was a great pleasure having you on King of the Hill. 

All right. Thanks on please. All right. 

Take care That was Brett Ritchie on the program So like I said, I apologize for that small delay because I don't know what the hell happened to the internet But now we're safe and sound but the great thing about it is since it's in the cloud I can actually edit it. So that'd be the great part about it. So Speaking of that so we're going to go over our next segment So it is called the week 11 NFL touchdown streak survivor on splash sports. 

So here's how it goes So if you're gonna pick a running back It has to be from a receiving rushing or a return rather It's even if it's a point or a kickoff return if you're gonna pick a quarterback It cannot be a passing touchdown. It has to be a receiving touchdown. So all they have to do is Score a touchdown. 

So if they score a touchdown you advance the next week. If not, you're eliminated So it's the same thing only difference is it's players so once again New customers can use my code you you m2i X and get $10 free When you enter a contest that is $10 plus or more and as a matter of fact We think of splash sports is more of a community type of daily fancy app where I can play along with friends family co-workers vice versa so I've been using the splash sports since last year since it opened up in Michigan, so That's how I that's how I started doing this show because the show was originally was called safe or trap now. It's called King of the hill so they have it. 

All right, so here are my five picks okay, here's my five picks for the NFL touchdown streak survivor picks you can select on splash sports. So let's look at Trey McBride Now he has found the end zone in four straight weeks scoring five touchdown and he leads the Cardinals in both target share

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