One pick, one throne. Hello everyone, this is King of the Hill Survivor Pool Show. I'm your host Shawn Stewart.

On this, the 7th, 17th, 2025, glad to have you on this wonderful Wednesday evening. As you know, I used to do the show on Thursdays, but hey, Wednesday's much better than doing Thursday. And also, the 5A6 Sports website is under construction, so you won't see that until Friday.

So I have my good friend, Mr. James, all the way from Toronto. How are you doing, my friend? I'm good, my man. How are you? I'm doing great.

So, man, we had a wonderful week. So not only we had NFL, but we also had the Heisman Trophy, of course. We wanna give a shout out to Fernando Mendoza for winning the Heisman Trophy.

So this is the first time Indiana has ever had accomplished like that, because I remember when I was growing up, Indiana used to be like the one of the worst football teams for college football. Yeah, Kirk Cignetti really came into that program two years ago. He came out of JMU, who is also a college football playoff team under a new leader.

But he came into Indiana and really set a culture, and he set his way, his culture, and everyone's been. This is now their second year that everyone's bought in like this, and it's done wonders for Indiana. That is very terrific, that's very terrific.

So also during on the show, I will explain to you how to play splash sports, college football, playoff survival pool. This is the second time that's ever happened before. So before I begin, so make sure that you follow us on social media.

Let me get that. So make sure you follow King of the Hill Survival Pool show on social media at kingoftheheels on X, and then Instagram at kingoftheheelsurvivor. And new Splash Force customers can use code UUM2IX to get $10 free, $10 credits when you enter a contest that is $10 or more that is also including people that lives in Canada.

All right, so now we got that out the way. So we wanna do a recap of last week. So I am still in my survival pool for both of my contests.

So I'm happy. So the teams that, there was a lot of teams actually won for like popular picks. For example, the San Francisco 49ers beat the Tennessee Titans, which of course that did happen.

The Jacksonville Jaguars did put a beat down on the New York Jets. As a matter of fact, I remember during that blowout, Travis Etienne had three touchdowns and then the Jets had to fire their defensive coordinator, Steve Wilks, the former defensive coordinator that used to be the defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. I totally forgot about that.

I was like, well, that explains to why the New York Jets gave away so many points with 48 points against Jacksonville. Yeah, I mean, these games are crazy this weekend. Personally, for the one o'clock games, I had my eyes set on that Patriots-Bills game.

And then also on that Kansas City versus Chargers game. Those two games, I think they both went down to the wire. The Patriots game, the Patriots had them up 21 and then they just let Josh Allen get loose.

And once he got loose, they couldn't stop him. They couldn't stop him. They couldn't stop James Cook.

They couldn't stop anyone on that Bills offense. And the Bills are now looking like the Bills we normally see. Whereas earlier on in the season, they looked like a completely disenfranchised version of themselves.

Exactly, because I was like, because at first I was like, you know what? The game was over and then all of a sudden Buffalo came back and win it. So right now the series is split because the last time New England did beat the Bills at Buffalo and then Buffalo just happened, just beat New England. Now, if you're tuning into that division, there is a one game difference, but the Patriots, as of right now, still hold the tiebreaker as the Patriots have the better divisional record than the Bills.

So if the Patriots tie, sorry, if the Patriots win against Miami and lose against the Jets or vice versa, then if the Bills went out, they win the division. Whereas if the Patriots win those last two games of the season, then they win the division. So that division will very much go down to that week 18 game, Patriots versus the Dolphins.

And we did say something last week. We were warning people about the Thursday night football game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and proven that the Atlanta Falcons did beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So right now, even though both teams did lose, Tampa Bay still has the lead in the NFC South.

But if you look at that game on Thursday night, there were some very bad calls and there were some sloppy plays, but I gotta tell you, like, this is like, cause you know, Baker Mayfield do have an injury with his shoulder injury. So that's why you're seeing him throwing the football, but I'm not surprised that Tampa Bay lose to Atlanta. Cause even though we do say some bad about Kirk Cousins, I gotta tell you that Atlanta, they could be iffy at times.

They could be iffy at times, especially on the road. Yeah, Atlanta is a very street team. They can play with the best of them and they can also bring people down to their level.

Once Baker Mayfield threw that interception when they were driving with about eight minutes left, me personally, my stomach started to turn. I felt like I was starting to get flashbacks from three or four years ago when Atlanta did the same thing that time in Atlanta. And what do you know? It happens again.

So these Atlanta teams, they're really streaky. They've been like this ever since Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix have been at the helm, ever since Raheem Morris has been at the helm. I, that's why betting against Atlanta is a very risky bet.

You're really gonna be watching, especially in the first half, like we played Seattle, that game was tied in the first half and then Seattle ran away with it. So Atlanta is a really, you're gonna be paying attention if you're gonna pick against them. And then another one I also noticed because I did figure Seattle was going to win it, but I also looked at that loss margin between the Colts and the Seahawks because I did watch that game on my laptop.

I was thinking at first like, oh man, the Colts is gonna put an upset against Seattle, but Seattle came back and overcome that win. So as we're going to talk about week 16, I gotta say like, this is like right now in week 16, all the way to beyond, this is where like you really have to pay attention. And this right now where you have to really pay attention, like which game, which team could be a popular pick and more games could be trapped and less could be safe games.

And we'll explain to that later. Yeah, I mean, every game now, I feel just like most football fans, I mean, who the heck do you pick? Because I think everyone around the league has seen an upset somewhere over somebody. And this year more than others, we've seen a lot more parody around the league.

So if you're confused about who to pick this week, it's a great time to tune in. These last couple of weeks is a great time to tune in. I mean, me and Sean have been pretty good the last, Sean's been good all year, but I think we did a good job last week.

Now would be a great time to start kind of writing down, you know, dotting your X's, you know. Exactly. So right now what I'm going to do is I'm going to upload the grid sheet for week 16.

Let me see if that grid sheet's coming up. Okay, there it is. Okay, there it is.

So I am going to upload the grid sheet for the NFC. So we'll talk about NFC and then we'll talk about the AFC. So as you're looking into the grid sheet right now, so you're seeing Chicago is playing Green Bay.

So according to Splash Sports, they have a 51% chance of beating the Green Bay Packers. Then I also noticed that they gave Detroit a 76% beating Pittsburgh, but I was like, hey, they may be favored if you're a betting person, but from a survival perspective, I see this game as trap because you never know like which Detroit Lions and which Detroit, Detroit, which Pittsburgh and what Detroit Lions team you may see. But what I am concerned is if you're picking the Lions, I gotta be concerned about Aaron Rodgers and that secondary because you know how Aaron Rodgers is.

Aaron Rodgers can throw that football like deep. And of course Detroit Lions meltdown. So to me, I would avoid this game.

And plus two of these teams are trying to get into the playoffs. Yeah, I mean, Pittsburgh being, Detroit being a 76% favorite in my opinion, I thought was one of the crazier percentages I saw today. But I think Pittsburgh is a really streaky team.

Pittsburgh plays good at times. Pittsburgh also looks like they're stuck in the mud at times. But overall, I would say Detroit is the stronger team.

Now Detroit's playing at home, which favors them. But also, like I said, Pittsburgh is a strong team. Pittsburgh is playing for a playoff spot and they're leading their division.

So it's a little funny to me that they're such a large underdog. So I would stay away from this game personally. So let me look at the odds right now.

So the Lions are favored by six and a half. The Lions are favored by six and a half. Wow, that's a big number.

That's a big, big, big number. Then I'm also, and then of course, I would tell anybody to stay away from the Chicago Green Bay game. There's another one I would avoid.

Depends on what your survival pool look like. Because right now my survival pool, I have a lot of elite teams. But this one's kind of more of a risk because you have a Minnesota Vikings team, even though they are technically eliminated, they're gonna go on the road to face the New York football giant.

Now for me, I'm thinking like, okay, this game is at New Jersey, not New York, excuse me, it's in New Jersey, even though it says New York. Kirk Cousins, iffy, because you know, last year he had that injury last year. And then I'm looking at the Giants, it's like, that could be like a possible trap.

That's another one. So if you have a lot of elite teams in your survival pool, I would definitely avoid that. But if you have a limited amount of teams, I would say pick Minnesota, but please be very cautious.

That's all I would say about that. Yeah, Minnesota, they looked really good against Dallas. Now, a lot of teams have looked like Super Bowl contenders against that Dallas defense, but I mean, J.J. McCarthy looked like he finally had a good game, some could say a breakout game.

He will need to carry that momentum into this game against New York. As much as the Vikings are eliminated, the Vikings do not look like they're playing like an eliminated team. They are playing like a team who is trying to play spoiler and beat every team in their schedule.

If you don't have a lot of great teams in your league, I would pick Minnesota over the Giants. But if you can avoid it, I would. Exactly, because like I said, since I have a lot of elite teams, I would definitely avoid this game.

You don't wanna be, there's no reason for you to pick this game anyway. It's like, why even mention it? Yeah, I agree. I think this Philly versus Washington Commanders game is that could be a very interesting contest.

We haven't seen Philadelphia play against Washington yet this year, and Philadelphia's offense hasn't been very inspiring. There's been a lot of questions about their offensive coordinator and their, sorry, what was that? Yeah, so sorry, I couldn't get that, but their game against Washington will definitely be a must win for Philadelphia. The question will be, will they play well against the Commanders? And if you're asking me, I will probably say after their performance last week, yes, I would book Philadelphia for a win, but it might come down to that fourth quarter.

Now, with that being said, this will be like one of the safest picks this upcoming week because they do play on a Saturday. So the Philadelphia-Washington game is one of the games. And then after that is the Chicago-Green Bay game.

So those games will be on Saturday while the rest of them will be on Sunday. Of course, the Rams and the Seahawks is tomorrow. Of course, that's a rivalry game.

You don't wanna mess with that one. Then another one I'm also looking at is another one. This is a risky one, but I would not even touch this, would be the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Chargers.

Now, when you look at the Dallas Cowboys, in the month of December, they're actually struggling against AFC teams. Because usually in the month of December, you would think the Dallas Cowboys will win this game. But this is another one, like you got both of these teams that are trying to get into the playoffs, but at least for the Chargers, we don't know like what type of seed they will be in because the AFC is kind of wide open in terms of like playoff spot.

But Dallas, with their defense, I can't trust them. And of course, the Chargers, even though the Chargers do have a banged up offensive line, I still wouldn't even touch that game. So like I said, if you have a lot of elite teams in your survival pool, I would not even touch that game.

Matter of fact, I would avoid this on a six foot pole. You know, I'm still a little surprised that the Chargers are such, are an underdog at all in this game. I understand that they looked really flat in the Jaguars game, but after that game, they had a very convincing win against the Raiders.

Against the Eagles, where they were also an underdog, they had a really solid win and they beat the Chiefs yesterday and eliminated them. So I think the Chargers really should be a much scarier team. I'm kind of surprised that they're not favored in this game.

I think the one thing going in Dallas' favor is the Chargers lost to two of Dallas' divisional foes against the Commanders and the Giants. But other than that, I mean, you take that aside, the Chargers look like the better team overall. The Chargers have the better record other than a banged up offensive line.

I would take the Chargers every day of the week. I'm quite perplexed that Dallas is favored. And also the one thing about the Chargers is the fourth quarter letdowns because the Chargers do have the audacity to screw things up.

Oh, oh yes they do. Oh yes they do. They are quite known for that.

But I mean, Dallas hasn't looked stellar all year. I think everyone has taken that Dallas defense as a tune me up game, get the offense back into fighting shape. But Dallas, I don't think Dallas will produce now, especially that they're eliminated from the playoffs, nearly as well.

I think their receivers will be a little less motivated. We've seen George Pickens have a lack of motivation before. I think being eliminated from the playoffs certainly won't help that lack of motivation.

I absolutely agree. Now the next one you would definitely, definitely, definitely, definitely for you is definitely between these two, because whoever win that game will be the first in the NFC South. That is the Tempe Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers.

Now, both of these teams are inconsistent and we don't know who's gonna turn over the ball more. Now if, and one thing about Carolina, they have upset teams this year, would be like the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau. But I'm looking at it as like this, like if it was like a healthy Buccaneers team, I would say Buccaneers.

But with them being this so close, I'm like, no. And so I'm looking at the all-time series. The Panthers actually lead this series 25 to 24.

I did not even know that. And then the last few match-ups has been 26, 23 in overtime, 21, 18, nine and O. So, and then Baker Mayfield, even though he has 22 touchdowns, seven interceptions, the Buccaneers do have stall drive, inconsistent run game, and then the red zone validity. So I'm like, no.

Matter of fact, I would not even touch these two in the rest of my survival pool, if you think about it. Yeah, and I wouldn't go anywhere near this game. I like Tampa Bay as a team.

I think they're a better team than Carolina, but let's look at their last couple of games. Tampa Bay has lost five of their last six, and Carolina hasn't been very good either. They've gone loss, win, loss, win ever since their win against the Jets.

So Carolina's been very up and down, and Tampa has been, ever since their hot start, has been on a fast decline. So this division typically goes down to whoever's best of the rest, but I mean, this season more than others, we are really seeing a best of the rest level team out of this division. Now, here's another one that I've been talking to people, is that the Monday night football game that is between the San Francisco 49ers and the Indianapolis Colts.

Now, I forgot to put the winning percentage. Now, the percentage is, for the 49ers, is a 70.6, according to Splash Sports. And once again, when it comes to survival pools, you don't wanna look at just the loss, you also wanna look at the point margin.

That's what many survival pools tend to forget, because you have some survival pool players that think they know it all. But when the 49ers play on turf, on the road, they kind of struggle this year. They're not the same team like they usually be, but, oh, he must've, he'll probably come back, because it must've been in and out.

But I just don't feel like the San Francisco 49ers is worth a pick against this Indianapolis Colts team, because something tells me that this Indianapolis Colts may even pull this upset against the San Francisco 49ers, and plus, the Indianapolis Colts is trying to get a playoff spot, even though they don't have Daniel Jones as their QB, because he's out for the rest of the season. So it's like, what's the point of even picking this between these two? I think we must've, I think we can't even hear you, because your, your, your, your, your volume. Hold on a second.

All right, how about now? Okay, because I can't hear you. Can you hear me now? Okay, yes, I can hear you now. I was saying about the Thursday, the Monday night football game between the 49ers and the Colts.

I was saying this, like, I don't feel, I don't really feel confident in this game, because I know many people say it as a save, but I can see this as a possible trap, because you got the Indianapolis Colts just trying to get a, you know, not only a win, but trying to get into that playoff spot, even though they have Philip Rivers as their quarterback, even though he didn't do that much. But something tells me that the Colts may pull off this upset against the San Francisco 49ers. I have a strange feeling about that on Monday night.

I really do. Yeah, I think the Colts looked really strong in that game against the Seahawks. I mean, they looked about as strong as they could without their top, I think, two or three quarterbacks now if they're onto Philip Rivers.

So I think Indianapolis really still is fighting for playoffs in their heads, at least they still think that they can make it. But I think San Fran will win. I just don't know how close.

And I would stay away from that game. I think that Monday night game is just, you're gonna be thinking about it all weekend as well. You're really gonna be wondering how good your pick is.

I think you're just putting yourself in a stressful situation. Now, here's what people don't know about the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are actually six and one at home this season.

That is like terrific. Now, I'm looking at Jonathan Taylor because he has like 1,443 yards with 16 touchdowns while McCaffrey has 922 yards and nine touchdowns. Now, the Colts' defense, Latino Latu has seven sacks and then Zaire Franklin has 104.

So they do create pressure in Portsmouth State. And then also the Colts leads the all-time series 27 to 19. So the last time they faced each other, the Colts beat the 49ers back in 2021.

That's a very interesting stat right there. Yeah, it is. I think the Colts certainly are currently still fighting.

I think Jonathan Taylor struggled the last couple of weeks. So I think if they can get him going, then their offense will produce more. If you look at him, if you even wanna look at fantasy numbers, he has been fantasy running back the last two weeks, number 35.

So if you wanna talk about a player singular production and look at fantasy numbers, running back 35, especially when we're talking about a guy who's at least the top three normally is just not where you wanna see it. If he can pick it up this week, Sam Fran is really gonna be in for something. And not to mention, this is the last week for the fantasy football championship round because this is week 16.

And then after that, of course, most of the players will be playing like backups, stuff like that. Now, I totally forgot about Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh actually drafted a QB.

I totally forgot about that. He was drafted in the sixth round. I think he played for the Ohio State Buckeyes.

He was drafted in the sixth round. I can't think of the top of my head, but I know Miami is gonna start, well, two is gonna be in the bench, but what was that quarterback from Texas? Quinn. Oh, Quinn Ewers.

Yes, thank you, from Texas. I totally forgot about him. He's been totally quiet.

Yeah, I mean, they have not used him at all. I thought they were gonna maybe go to him a little early this year, but they have not used him at all. And he was a real big question mark coming out of college.

People thought the year before he was gonna be in the draft, but he ended up having a poor season. So I think Quinn Ewers, for most fans' perspective, is not a guy with a lot of bright side, but I mean, you never know. Some guys really turn out to be great quarterbacks in the league when they were just mid-tier college quarterbacks.

All right, so we showed that in the NFC, so I'm going to show you the AFC chart. And then after that, I'm gonna tell you which two teams you're gonna pick in the college football survival pool and how to play that. So let us show that in the AFC.

All right, so it's in two, it's in two. So if it's in two, so you'll see it. All right, so now we did talk about the Pittsburgh-Detroit.

Now Pittsburgh has a 23%. Now the one game I'm really, really very, let me put that in the share screen. The one game I'm very concerned is even though Buffalo did win to play New England, something tells me that this game is another trap one because Buffalo is coming off an overcoming win against New England.

And we have seen teams that have great wins that week and then the next week they fall on their faces. And we've seen Cleveland make some upsets this year. So I'm thinking like, oh no, this is not a great idea if you pick Buffalo in this series.

And Buffalo's defense could put the pressure on road teams. But, and also you gotta think about Buffalo. Buffalo do have the audacity to screw things up.

So I won't be surprised if Buffalo lose this game against Cleveland. Now I'm gonna go against you here, Sean. I think Buffalo is a lock.

I think Cleveland looked so, so bad. I know they went into the Windy City and they went into Chicago, but I think Cleveland looks so, so bad. And I might be putting my foot in my mouth here, but I think Buffalo will easily, easily beat the Browns.

I think they need to figure out how to play better in the first half. But I think Cleveland just looked like a distraught team. Shador has not been given the resources very obviously.

They don't want him to succeed in Cleveland. I mean, how do you mess up the guy's wristband? They sent him out there on the first drive with the wrong wristband. How do you, in the NFL, can you send your quarterback out with the wrong wristband in the wrong place? So I think Buffalo is just a chaotic mess.

I don't know how Buffalo comes out against, or sorry, Cleveland is a chaotic mess. I don't see how Cleveland comes out against Buffalo with a win. Now, if someone were to pick Buffalo, what would be the concerns if they pick Buffalo? I would say your big concerns would be your entire, your defense and your first half.

If you're picking Buffalo, you're really concerned about a slow start. They come out with a slow start in a lot of games, and some of them they've lost and some of them they've won. So if you're looking and you see Buffalo come out slow, you're probably gonna get a little unnervy.

But you really need to hang in there and just wait and watch Buffalo develop and watch Josh Allen take over a game. It's something to watch, especially these last two years. He's really turned into a phenomenal quarterback.

But I think Buffalo will maybe come out a little slow in the first quarter, maybe the first half. But then once those fireworks go off, they go off. Thank you for that information.

Another one we did say about Miami's having a QB. So right now, with Baltimore, I'm saying like this, I say, you know what? Not only I would not play that game against New England, but I would say Baltimore, and I would probably say Cincinnati, because Miami has a new quarterback, as like we did say about 12B at bench. But I would say like this, like Cincinnati, I would not, not only I would avoid that game, but I would save Cincinnati and probably would either use them in week 17 or week 18, depending on what your support, depending on what your pool looks like.

So, cause like this week will probably be not the good week to play against the Dolphins, even though it is a home game. Yeah, I would save Cincinnati for week 17 or 18. I think those Arizona or Cleveland games, when Cincinnati, Cincinnati would be at home for those games, correct? Week 17 and 18? Let me check, let me check.

I know the last game was Cleveland. That is a home game. That is a home game, because like the first time they played, it was at Cleveland.

Right, so I think Cincinnati at home, especially in those last two games of the season against what I still think are lesser teams than Miami. I think Miami had a QB problem this year, but if they had a better QB and maybe a better offensive play caller, then they could have been a better team. But I think Cincinnati will play much better against the Cardinals and will play great in that last game of the season.

I could see Joe Burrow. He's been.

(This file is longer than 30 minutes. Go Unlimited at TurboScribe.ai to transcribe files up to 10 hours long.)